With less than a week before his government delivers its first federal budget, Prime Minister Mark Carney is outlining what he calls a new direction for Canada’s economy — one that risks severing the very ties that have sustained national prosperity for generations.

Speaking at the University of Ottawa on Oct. 22, Carney characterized Canada’s dependence on the United States as a liability instead of an advantage, asserting that the period of close cross-border integration has come to an end. He also cautioned Canadians to prepare for “challenges” and “sacrifices” in the months ahead.

As Carney enjoys yet another trip abroad, Canadians are being told to tighten their belts while the country grapples with rising costs and weakening job numbers. The national unemployment rate rose to 7.1 per cent in August 2025, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while youth unemployment reached 14.5 per cent — the highest level since 2010 outside the pandemic years. Food prices climbed 3.8 per cent in September and according to the OECD, shelter-related expenses, including rent and homeownership costs, have added between 1.5 and 2 percentage points to inflation since mid-2021, underscoring the continued strain in Canada’s housing market.

The situation worsened as the Canadian government’s actions sparked new tensions. Trump announced plans for another 10 per cent levy on Canadian imports after an ad released by Ontario Premier Doug Ford and supported by Carney, referenced a 1987 Ronald Reagan speech on protectionism. The move provoked Trump to halt trade talks and accuse Canada of hostility. 

Carney’s response suggested he was prepared to talk when Trump was ready. Ford dismissed the dispute as no big deal, saying he would prefer “no deal” to a bad one. But that is precisely what Canada has — no deal — as jobs, industries and investments continue to drain away. It’s worth asking when the most powerful country in the world will drop everything to call Canada back to the table.

Since Carney took office in March, more than $83 billion in investment capital has left the country, a reflection of foreign divestment and growing domestic pessimism. While the prime minister speaks of fiscal restraint, he faces an economy running below capacity, with analysts projecting real GDP growth of just 1 to 1.5 per cent through 2026. Business confidence remains fragile, productivity stagnant and export markets uncertain.

Yet Carney continues to promote trade diversification toward Asia, a move that defies geography and basic economics. Three-quarters of Canada’s exports still go to the United States — a $596-billion trade relationship that supports millions of jobs and underpins national wealth. Goods cross the border by truck within hours; ships to Asia take weeks, burn fuel and cost more. Meanwhile, the Indo-Pacific region, beyond Japan, is grappling with slower growth and mounting political instability.

For all his talk of independence, Carney’s vision risks isolating Canada from its closest ally and most reliable customer. The United States remains a democratic partner, a global powerhouse and a market that understands Canadian values, institutions and products. Abandoning that relationship for uncertain gains abroad is not economic renewal — it is reckless experimentation.

As the prime minister prepares his first budget, Canadians should ask whether his pursuit of a new direction is driven by pragmatism or ideology. In a world already fraught with volatility, Mark Carney seems determined to strike the match that could set Canada’s economic foundation aflame.