A major new report presents estimates suggesting Alberta independence could bring more than $200 billion in initial costs, but constitutional lawyer Keith Wilson and pro-independence organizations say the analysis places too much weight on pessimistic outcomes and too little on Alberta’s negotiating strength.

The Canada West Foundation released its 140-page Alberta in Confederation report Sept. 3, ahead of the provincewide referendum scheduled for Oct. 19.

The report examines constitutional law, Indigenous and treaty rights, public debt, pensions, trade, labour mobility and business investment. It was written as an anthology by economists, legal scholars, former public servants and business leaders.

The foundation describes the project as non-partisan and says individual contributors are responsible for their conclusions. However, several essays emphasize the financial and economic risks of independence and the final contribution makes the case for remaining in Canada.

Albertans will not vote directly on separation in October. They will choose whether Alberta should remain a province or whether the government should begin the legal process required to hold a future binding referendum on independence.

One of the foundation report’s most striking estimates comes from former Alberta Treasury Board and Finance official Lennie Kaplan.

Kaplan estimates independence could involve $206.8 billion in initial costs and $57.6 billion in continuing annual expenses. The initial figure includes an assumed $174.2-billion share of federal net debt, calculated using Alberta’s portion of Canada’s population.

The analysis also assigns $10.2 billion a year to servicing that debt and as much as $7 billion to negotiating new trade arrangements.

Kaplan projects Alberta’s nominal gross domestic product could be $39.1 billion, or 7.2 per cent, below a business-as-usual forecast in 2028. Employment could be about 45,700 jobs below the baseline.

Those figures are projections rather than measured losses. They depend heavily on assumptions about trade barriers, investment uncertainty, borrowing costs and the outcome of negotiations with Canada.

A separate contribution by economist Paul Boothe uses gross federal liabilities rather than net debt. That approach produces a larger potential debt allocation of between $258 billion and $333 billion.

Boothe also questions whether an independent Alberta would receive a large transfer of Canada Pension Plan assets. He argues existing CPP benefits could continue to be paid to eligible Albertans in the same way benefits are paid to Canadians living abroad, while Alberta created a separate system for future contributions.

Old Age Security would be different because it is funded from federal tax revenue rather than individual contributions. An independent Alberta would likely have to establish and finance its own replacement program.

The report also warns that Alberta could not assume it would automatically remain covered by Canada’s international trade agreements.

An independent Alberta would need arrangements governing trade with Canada and the United States, as well as access to pipelines, railways and ports crossing other jurisdictions. The report says joining the World Trade Organization could take years, while agreements such as the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement do not contain a straightforward process for Alberta to join.

The report does not suggest goods would immediately stop moving. Its business analysis says trucks, trains and pipelines would likely continue operating, while flights would probably continue as governments negotiated new arrangements. The expected risk would come from customs procedures, regulatory duplication, uncertainty and added costs.

Wilson, co-chair of the Let Alberta Decide campaign and co-lead of the Alberta Transition Council, responded that the foundation repeatedly turns uncertain negotiating outcomes into worst-case financial assumptions.

He said Alberta would not be creating a country entirely from the ground up. It already has a government, Legislature, courts, police services, municipalities, health and education systems, regulators, infrastructure and an experienced workforce.

The Alberta Transition Council released its own 214-page transition plan Sept. 3. It proposes three stages covering preparation, formal negotiations and post-independence stabilization.

The plan says Alberta could preserve existing laws, institutions and payment systems while transferring or replacing federal responsibilities. Temporary service agreements, leases, shared-use arrangements and bilateral protocols could remain in place while permanent settlements were negotiated.

On federal debt, the council rejects using population alone to determine Alberta’s share. It says negotiations should also consider federal assets located in Alberta, the beneficiaries of past federal spending and Alberta’s historical contribution to federal revenue.

The council does not recommend a specific debt figure. It acknowledges that historical contributions would not automatically create a legally enforceable debt owed to Alberta but says they should strengthen the province’s position in an overall settlement.

Its pension proposal separates uninterrupted monthly payments from the eventual division of CPP assets. The council says Alberta should be prepared to act as a temporary payer if necessary while negotiations over contributions, assets and liabilities continue.

On trade, the council acknowledges that Canadian agreements would not automatically become Alberta agreements and that WTO membership could not be assumed. It proposes seeking temporary agreements with Canada and the United States while using existing Canadian rules and systems as a starting point.

The council’s transition plan does not include detailed cost estimates. It says a separate financial report examining transition costs is expected before the Oct. 19 vote.

An earlier Alberta Prosperity Project document offers a much more optimistic fiscal forecast.

Its July 2025 draft estimates Alberta could retain between $68 billion and $75 billion in annual federal taxes and contributions. It places the annual cost of replacing federal services at between $22.7 billion and $31.6 billion, with initial costs of $2.8 billion to $5.7 billion.

The plan projects an annual surplus of between $29.4 billion and $48.3 billion. However, it assumes Alberta would receive $167 billion in CPP assets and earn returns comparable to the CPP’s historical performance. Its financial tables account for Alberta’s existing provincial debt but do not include an allocation of federal debt.

The document also warns that its numbers are approximate, with a possible variation of about 10 per cent. It is an advocacy plan rather than an independently audited government budget.

Let Alberta Decide emphasizes that Alberta contributed $244.6 billion more to the federal government than it received between 2007 and 2022. The campaign uses an estimated annual net contribution of $20 billion to argue that Alberta would have significant fiscal room and negotiating leverage.

Alberta Fact Check, another site supporting the independence side of the debate, argues that federal energy policies and possible restrictions or taxes on energy exports create a more immediate investment threat than allowing Albertans to vote.

The disagreement is therefore not mainly about whether independence would require negotiation or new government responsibilities. Both sides recognize that it would.

The central dispute is over how much those responsibilities would cost, how much federal debt Alberta would accept, what portion of CPP assets it could secure and whether Canada and other trading partners would agree to low-friction transition arrangements.

None of the reports represents an agreement with Canada, other provinces, First Nations, the United States or international trade organizations. Their sharply different forecasts show how much of Alberta’s potential financial position would depend on decisions that have not yet been negotiated.