Canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange declined Wednesday, pressured by a weaker Chicago soyoil market, despite strength in European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil, along with rising crude prices even amid the Ukraine conflict and newly imposed U.S. tariffs on Indian imports. 

Statistics Canada is set to issue its satellite and model-based crop production report on Thursday. Last week, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada lifted its estimate for the 2025-26 canola harvest to 20.1 million tonnes. Analysts expect Statistics Canada may raise its number further to approximately 20.2 million tonnes—or even as high as 20.8 million tonnes. 

Week-ahead weather forecasts point to widespread 30 °C temperatures across much of the Canadian Prairies. Southern Manitoba may receive some rain and thunderstorms tonight, while the balance of the region is expected to remain dry. 

Trading activity slowed, with 28,219 canola contracts changing hands on Wednesday, down from 40,659 on Tuesday. Of these, 13,082 were part of spreading activity. 

In wheat futures, Minneapolis spring wheat lost over 13 U.S. cents per bushel as favourable harvest weather, good quality, and advancing progress weighed on the market. Soft wheat in Chicago and hard red wheat in Kansas City also eased. Looking ahead, traders await the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report, tentatively expected to reveal between 400,000 and 700,000 tonnes of wheat sold during the week ended Aug. 21.

Canola prices softened under pressure from global oilseed markets and broader economic factors, while forecasts for a larger Canadian crop may reinforce bearish sentiment. Hot and dry conditions across the Prairies continued to raise concerns for yields, adding to the uncertainty. Wheat markets also moved lower as favourable harvest weather supported strong progress and quality, keeping supplies ample. Upcoming export figures from the U.S. Department of Agriculture are expected to provide further direction for both canola and wheat trends.