The federal government’s assertion that immigration levels are falling rests on a narrow set of measurements that do not capture recent growth in birth tourism, expanded citizenship eligibility under Bill C-3, or special family-based entry programs, according to immigration analysts and opposition critics.

Federal officials have pointed to reductions in the number of temporary residents — particularly international students and some categories of foreign workers — as evidence that immigration is at its lowest level in years. Statistics Canada has reported a modest population decline in late 2025, attributing it largely to fewer non-permanent residents.

However, those figures do not include several pathways that increase access to Canadian citizenship or long-term residency but fall outside Ottawa’s standard immigration reporting framework.

Available data points to a broader increase in births linked to non-citizens. Non-resident births accounted for an estimated 1.5 per cent of all births in Canada in 2023–24, up from roughly 0.7 per cent during the pandemic years, with total non-resident births estimated at about 5,430 in 2024. Hospitals in major urban centres such as Toronto and Montreal have reported increased numbers of births to temporary residents compared with pre-pandemic levels. 

More broadly, more than 40 per cent of babies born in Canada in 2024 — approximately 154,700 — were born to foreign-born mothers, reflecting sustained demographic change beyond traditional immigration intake figures.

Canada remains one of the few developed countries that grants unconditional birthright citizenship, meaning any child born on Canadian soil is automatically a citizen regardless of parental status. Birthright citizenship is not tracked as part of annual immigration admissions.

Citizenship eligibility was further expanded with the passage of Bill C-3, which came into force in December 2025. The legislation amended the Citizenship Act to remove the first-generation limit on citizenship by descent and restore citizenship to individuals commonly referred to as “lost Canadians.”

Under the new law, children born abroad to Canadian parents may claim citizenship if their Canadian parent can demonstrate a substantial connection to Canada, defined as three years of physical presence prior to the child’s birth. Their children may also be eligible under the same criteria.

Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada has said the legislation corrects historical inequities and modernizes citizenship law to reflect the realities of Canadians living and working abroad.

During parliamentary debate, Conservative immigration critic Michelle Rempel Garner proposed an amendment that would have restricted birthright citizenship to children born to at least one Canadian citizen or permanent resident. The amendment was defeated with Liberal and Bloc Québécois support, leaving Canada’s existing birthright citizenship framework unchanged.

At the same time, Ottawa has introduced special immigration measures for family members of Canadians affected by international conflicts, including Palestinians in Gaza. The measures allow eligible relatives of Canadian citizens or permanent residents to apply for temporary residence, with processing accommodations and fee exemptions.

The federal government has described the programs as humanitarian and time-limited. Immigration lawyers and policy analysts have noted that similar measures in the past have often led to permanent residence through existing pathways, though such outcomes are not automatic.

While Ottawa has emphasized declines in temporary resident numbers, permanent immigration levels remain high. Nearly 484,000 permanent residents were admitted to Canada in 2024, according to the government’s most recent annual report to Parliament on immigration, with elevated targets continuing through 2027.

Analysts say the divergence between official messaging and broader data reflects differences in definition rather than disputed statistics. Immigration levels, as reported by the government, focus on admissions and permit holders, while citizenship access, birthright citizenship and family-based measures operate outside those counts.

Opposition MPs and some policy experts argue that without acknowledging those distinctions, public claims that immigration is falling risk oversimplifying the overall picture of population growth and citizenship expansion in Canada.