Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada expects domestic processors to handle a record share of Canada’s canola crop in 2026-27 as expanded crushing capacity changes the market outlook for Prairie producers.

The department forecasts a 21.6-million-tonne canola crop, slightly below the record 21.8 million tonnes produced in 2025-26.

Domestic crush is forecast to reach a record 13.7 million tonnes. That would be 10 per cent higher than last year and 28 per cent above the five-year average.

The increase reflects processing expansions and continued demand for canola oil, including industrial uses.

Canola exports are forecast at eight million tonnes, down 12 per cent from 9.1 million tonnes in the previous crop year as more seed moves through domestic plants.

Ending stocks are projected at 1.5 million tonnes, down 13 per cent and below the five-year average.

The average No. 1 canola price at Vancouver is forecast at $720 a tonne. That is slightly above the previous crop year but 11 per cent below the five-year average.

Prices received by individual producers will vary with grade, delivery location, basis and contract timing.

The outlook also points to changes in two other important Alberta crops.

Alberta accounts for almost 55 per cent of Canadian barley acreage. National barley production is forecast at 9.1 million tonnes, down six per cent from last year as yields return from a record level.

The average Lethbridge feed barley price is forecast at $295 a tonne, up from $283 in 2025-26. Barley ending stocks are expected to remain below the five-year average.

Dry pea production is forecast to fall 20 per cent to 3.15 million tonnes. Alberta is estimated to hold 46 per cent of national pea acreage, behind Saskatchewan at 49 per cent.

Large carry-in stocks are expected to cushion the smaller pea crop. Exports are forecast at 2.7 million tonnes, with India, China and the United States remaining the leading markets.

Across all principal field crops, Canadian production is forecast at 101.5 million tonnes. That would be five per cent below the record 2025 harvest but nine per cent above the five-year average.

The outlook uses market and trade information available as of Aug. 13. Final production, quality and prices will depend on harvest results, demand and trade conditions.