New Angus Reid polling shows Canadians increasingly believe severe wildfire seasons are becoming the new normal. Most link climate change to worsening fires, although fewer now say climate change is primarily caused by human activity.

A growing number of Canadians believe natural climate cycles play a role in climate change, according to a new Angus Reid Institute survey that found public opinion has shifted noticeably over the past five years, even as most Canadians expect severe wildfire seasons to continue.

One of the survey's most significant findings is the continuing change in how Canadians view the causes of climate change. In 2021, 58 per cent of Canadians said climate change was caused mainly by human activity. That figure has dropped to 49 per cent in 2026.

At the same time, the proportion of Canadians who believe climate change is caused by a combination of human activity and natural cycles has increased from 32 per cent to 38 per cent. The share who believe climate change is primarily a naturally occurring phenomenon has also grown, rising from nine per cent to 13 per cent.

Taken together, those results suggest Canadians are becoming less likely to view climate change as being driven solely by human activity and are increasingly recognizing a role for natural climate patterns.

The survey also found Canadians remain concerned about the impact of wildfires. More than half of respondents, 56 per cent, believe wildfire seasons will become even more severe over the next 10 to 20 years, while another 30 per cent expect recent fire seasons to represent the new normal. Just four per cent believe wildfire activity will lessen over that period.

Despite changing views on the causes of climate change, most Canadians still believe it contributes to worsening wildfire conditions. Fifty-five per cent said climate change is a major factor behind increasingly severe wildfire seasons, while another 20 per cent described it as a minor factor. One in five respondents said climate change plays little or no role.

The findings also reveal regional differences across the country. Residents of British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan—provinces that have experienced repeated severe wildfire seasons in recent years—generally expressed greater concern about future wildfire risk than Canadians living in many other parts of the country.

Political affiliation also continues to influence opinions about climate change. Supporters of the Green Party and Liberal Party were the most likely to say climate change is primarily caused by human activity, while Conservative supporters were more likely to attribute it to natural causes or a combination of natural cycles and human activity.

Although Canadians remain deeply concerned about the growing impact of wildfires, the poll suggests public opinion is evolving on what is causing climate change. Compared with five years ago, fewer Canadians now believe human activity is the primary driver, while more believe natural climate cycles play at least some role. Despite that shift, most still expect severe wildfire seasons to remain part of Canada's future.