Canada’s annual food-price outlook is forecasting another difficult year for household budgets in 2026, with overall grocery costs projected to climb between four and six per cent. The increase would push the annual food bill for a family of four to more than $17,500, nearly $1,000 higher than this year, according to findings published in the 2026 edition of Canada’s Food Price Report from Dalhousie University and its research partners.

The report says the steepest increases are expected in the meat counter, where prices could rise between five and seven per cent. Cattle numbers remain tight after years of drought in parts of the Prairies, a factor that continues to pressure beef supply. The report notes that beef costs surged early in 2025 and have not returned to earlier levels, contributing to higher prices throughout the protein sector. Poultry and other meats are also expected to rise as consumers shift away from more expensive cuts, adding pressure to those markets.

Other grocery categories are projected to post smaller but still significant increases. Vegetables, bakery goods, dairy items and pantry staples are expected to move higher, adding extra strain for households already adjusting to persistent price escalation. Restaurant meals are forecast to rise at roughly the same pace as overall food inflation. Seafood and fruit are expected to see more moderate increases compared with other food groups.

Researchers say a mix of global and domestic pressures continues to drive food costs. Production and processing expenses remain elevated, and those costs flow through supply chains to retailers. Weather-related disruptions, particularly in Western Canada, have added volatility to livestock and crop production. Broader economic conditions, including labour shortages and shifting international trade dynamics, continue to shape market conditions. Several provinces, including Alberta, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Ontario and Quebec, are projected to experience increases near or above the national range due to regional supply pressures.

The report highlights that food prices are roughly 27 per cent higher than five years ago, a trend that has reshaped household spending habits. Families may face further adjustments next year, including reduced purchases of higher-priced meats and greater reliance on lower-cost items. The findings also underscore concerns about food insecurity. Researchers estimate that about one-quarter of Canadian households already struggle to afford enough food, a situation at risk of deepening if costs continue to climb.