Ottawa’s decision to pay roughly €10 million to join the European Union’s Security Action for Europe program places Canada inside a major defence-procurement club, but it also exposes gaps in Canada’s own industrial capacity and raises questions about the practical value of the partnership.

SAFE is designed to help Europe rebuild and coordinate its defence supply chains by pooling government demand and financing large orders for equipment, ammunition and critical components. Membership gives Canadian defence companies the right to compete for EU-funded contracts that are expected to reach into the billions of euros over the next several years. Ottawa has described the fee as a strategic investment intended to give domestic firms access to these procurement rounds.

The program’s value to Canada depends on contract wins and there is no guarantee that Canadian firms will succeed in a highly competitive environment dominated by long-established European suppliers. In several of the product categories where SAFE is likely to spend heavily, Canada’s manufacturing footprint is limited. Large-scale vehicle production, mass-volume ammunition output and complex combat-system assembly lines are either modest in size or concentrated in a few facilities. That raises the question of whether Canada can meet the capacity requirements for the most lucrative contracts without major new domestic investment.

The program also expects participating countries to encourage their companies to form joint ventures or close partnerships with European manufacturers, a step that could direct future work overseas rather than building plants and supply chains at home. Critics worry that Canada’s participation could create pressure to channel more activity into Europe instead of using public dollars to strengthen Canada’s own industrial base.

SAFE also rewards countries that join common procurements and multilateral projects. While that model can expand contract size and reduce duplication, it can also increase financial exposure for smaller members. Ottawa has not detailed the long-term cost of taking part in these joint purchases, nor explained why those funds should be directed into European projects instead of accelerating Canada’s long-delayed domestic defence modernization.

Monitoring SAFE’s evolving contract cycles will require steady coordination between federal departments, export-control agencies and industry groups. That additional oversight will mean more administrative work and the government has not explained how much additional capacity will be needed to track competitions, assist domestic bidders or meet EU reporting obligations.

For Ottawa, the calculation is straightforward but uncertain. The entry fee gives Canadian companies a foothold in a massive procurement ecosystem, but the payoff hinges entirely on their ability to win competitions. Without significant domestic capacity or sustained investment at home, the benefits may prove smaller than advertised.